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Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE

Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE
Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALE
TLDR: $TSLA is likely partnering with $VALE to produce the insane quantity of Nickel needed to make Tesla’s vehicles, this is almost certainly happening for the following reasons…
READ FULL BEST DD ON WSB
  • $VALE is the largest nickel producer in the entire world, with Tesla constantly calling for more Nickel production the partnership potential for these two companies is a match made in heaven.
  • $VALE notified creditors on September 14th that it was paying off it’s $5 billion debt, suggesting a large deal leveling them an insane amount of capital.
  • $VALE’s trading volume is up 37% from it’s average and has bullish whale activity in the options chain.
  • Earlier this month, $VALE announced that they would be paying an extra dividend, on top of their regularly scheduled dividend, reinforcing the thesis of a strong balance sheet
  • Tesla and $VALE already have a history of being bidirectional business partners for over a year.
  • Conservative estimates reveal Tesla's growth plan leaves $VALE’s competitors ill equipped to deal with the demand for nickel Tesla needs to produce it's vehicles within five years.
>>>TESLA NEEDS NICKEL<<<
If there is one to take away from this post, it is the fact that Tesla vehicles need nickel and insane quantities of it. No one is better equipped to supply nickel to Tesla than $VALE. During Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Elon painstakingly laid out how badly they were looking for a nickel producer.
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”
>>>THE STARS ALIGNED<<<
The following points are largely circumstantial evidence, however when stacked together create an extremely powerful narrative and points toward the extreme likelihood of $VALE actually having lined up a revolutionary deal with Tesla.
Quotes from Tesla Q2 2020 Earnings Call
“There’s so much to be excited about. It’s really hard to kind of fit into this call, but the sheer amount of hardcore engineering, especially on the autonomy and the manufacturing/engineering front is mind-blowing. And then of course there’s Battery Day, which is coming up pretty soon. And I think that’s really going to surprise people by just how much there is to see.”-Elon Musk
“Yeah. The real limitation on Tesla growth is cell production at affordable price. That’s the real limit. So that’s where — we’re going to talk about — a lot more about this on Battery Day because this is a fundamental scaling constraint. And any part of that supply chain or processing at the cell level will be a limiting factor. So whatever it may be, anywhere from mining to refining — there’s many steps from refining to cathode and anode, cell formation. Whatever the choke point is, that will set the growth rate. And so we expect to expand our business with Panasonic, with CATL, with LG, possibly with others, and there’s a lot more to say on that front on Battery Day.”-Elon Musk
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”-Elon Musk
“Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough. We need to fix that. So we’re all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yeah, we need to not go bankrupt, obviously. That’s important, because then we’ll fail in our mission. But we’re not trying to be super profitable either, obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%. It’s not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable. Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth, and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that’s what we’re trying to achieve.”-Elon Musk

Battery Breakdown
Battery Breakdown
Philippe Houchois — Jefferies — Analyst
“Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. You mentioned a few times about the constraint to growth is battery capacity still. And I was hoping you could clarify the scope of the Berlin plant you’re building right now. Will there be — the battery capacity consistent with the amount of assembly volume you expect to come out of Berlin? And if not, will you be able to source your battery requirements out of Europe? Will you have to import batteries from outside Europe to ensure production in Berlin?
Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
Okay. We can’t say too much about this, except that there will be local cell production, and that will serve the needs of the Berlin factory. Drew, is there anything…?”(TeslaRati by Joey Klender)
$VALE mines nickel in Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and New Caledonia making it the LARGEST producer of nickel. VALE has joint-venture refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, the UK and Taiwan. These locations will help deliver nickel to the Tesla factories in North America, Berlin and China.
Future Nickel Demand
According To Tesla CEO Elon Musk, This Metal is The New Gold
The demand and future of nickel will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Electric vehicles and other modern technology NEED nickel to function.
“With demand expected to increase from 2.2 million metric tons to somewhere in the range of 3.5 million to 4.0 million metric tons by 2030, the nickel market could become constrained.”-McKinsey and Company By Marcelo Azevedo, Nicolas Goffaux, and Ken Hoffman

Nickel Demand
Nickel Demand
Elon Musk’s Emphasis on “Environmentally Friendly”
During the call and clip that was hyperlinked above, Elon emphasizes the demand for an “environmentally friendly” mine. Historically, we all know mines have run into trouble with being friendly toward the environment. Today more than ever, a company's concern for the environment must be vocally expressed and physically acknowledged. If not, the reporters and media will bash Tesla for not being environmentally sensitive. Elon Musk understands this and is aware that the nickel company Tesla chooses must at least appear as if they are environmentally “sensitive". Vale’s website has information on how they are sustainable and conscious of the controversies surrounding the mining industry.
“Given Tesla’s focus on sustainability, the company is likely to prefer to buy from miners of higher-grade nickel sulphide, which requires less power to process than laterite ore, said Lachlan Shaw of National Australia Bank.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton“There are three key suppliers - Brazil's Vale VALE3.SA, which operates in Canada using some hydropower, Russia's Norilsk Nickel GMKN.MM and BHP Group's operations BHP.AX in Western Australia. "Vale is in the box seat," he said.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton
Just the appearance and attempt to be environmental is enough to scare away most journalists who are looking to make a hit piece on Tesla. To wrap it up, Vale has the efficient, sustainable, and environmental mining that Elon Musk is looking for.

Stock Fundamentals and Technicals
$VALE Average Volume: 27,756,238
9/15/2020 volume: 44,035,430
This is a 37% increase in Volume compared to the average volume.
Current P/E of 50.53, Forward P/E of 5.22
Annual Yield 6.06% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Extra Dividend of 1.63% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Hedge Funds who own $VALE
Bill Ackman: Pershing Square Capital Management
Carl Icahn: Icahn Carl C
Warren Buffet: Berkshire Hathaway/Dividend Stock Portfolio
George Soros: Soros Fund Management
Laurence D. Fink: Blackrock Inc.
etc...
“A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) is the #11 broker analyst pick, on average, out of the 50 stocks making up the Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index, according to Metals Channel. The Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index is comprised of the top fifty global leaders from the metals and mining sector.” (Metals channel staff)
Whale Activity
FlowAlgo of VALE and Volume/OI below in the green box

Bullish FlowAlgo



Volume and Open interest on far right
***Technicals:***
Monthly signals: Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Sell
MA(200)Sell Sell
9 buys 3 sells
RSI(14)Neutral(52.393)
STOCH(9,6): Neutral
STOCHRSI(14)Overbought
MACD(12,26)Sell
CCI(14)Neutral
Weekly Signals: Strong Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Buy
MA(200)Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (60.683)
STOCH(9,6):Buy (61.174)
STOCHRSI(14)Overbought
MACD(12,26) Buy
CCI(14)Buy
Daily Signals: Strong Buy
Simple Exponential
MA(5) Buy Buy
MA(10)Buy Buy
MA(20)Buy Buy
MA(50)Buy Buy
MA(100)Buy Buy
MA(200)Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (58.562)
STOCH(9,6) Neutral
STOCHRSI(14) Overbought
MACD(12,26) Buy
CCI(14)Overbought

News Doesn't Care About Technical Analysis
No matter how good the TA setup is for $VALE, news does not give a FUCK about TA. If it has a catalyst to moon... moon it will.
Cash Flow
The increasing and regular cash flow has built a very strong balance sheet for VALE and the consistent high yield will keep the loyal investors around. In addition to this year's regular dividend, $VALE is paying investors an extra dividend of 1.63% on the same day as the regular. According to research firms such as CFRA, the management team has been very active and engaged to keep the company moving in the right direction despite COVID-19 setbacks and a decrease in steel demand.

Balance Sheet
Competition
$HNCKF (Giga Metals corp) a competing mining company fell 18.84% today after being in the news about potentially being a candidate for Tesla’s nickel demand. Currently, at a conservative rate, Giga’s mine would stop being able to satisfy Tesla’s Nickel needs by 2025, assuming they would be able to begin mining operations immediately. On the other hand, yesterday (Sept. 16), Vale announced that they had created buffers to reach production of 400 million metric tons of total mineral mining per year in a filing that was part of an investor tour presentation. Nickel is one of the five metals Vale mines.


Competition
I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine
Tesla and Vale already have a bidirectional relationship that GM and NKLA could never even dream of. Tesla and Vale have a history of working together. In March, “Antonin Beurrier, CEO of Vale-NC and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, signed a contract, an offtake agreement for the delivery of intermediate mixed nickel and refined cobalt (Nickel Hydroxide Cake-NHC) produced in New Caledonia. The product will become part of Tesla’s battery composition. The purchased volume remains confidential.”-Tesmanian by Eva Fox (original french source). Tesla and Vale have already signed a confidential contract in regards to Tesla’s battery composition materials needed.
In 2019, Tesla hired an Engineer from Vale-NC to “facilitate procurement and familiarization with the products of the Caledonian plant”
"Tesla has recruited an engineer in a nickel-cobalt refinery in New Caledonia, that of Vale, in order to facilitate purchases for its large European electric vehicle factory in Berlin."
Vale using Tesla’s Lithium batteries at Guaiba iron ore port
“Iron ore miner Vale is installing a Tesla battery energy storage system at Ilha Guaiba terminal in Rio de Janeiro state to help meet power needs at the port as it moves toward energy saving technology.”-London
The project will substitute 20% of the facility's power costs using Tesla manufactured lithium-ion batteries with technology contributing to decarbonization plans, Vale said in an Aug. 24 statement.”-London
Tesla’s technology is being used to lower costs at Vale’s iron ore and to contribute to the “decarbonization plans”. If you remember in the Q2 conference call, Elon Musk was searching for environmental and efficient nickel. Vale has that now thanks to Tesla's battery technology.
More Vale environmentalism
‘Vale recently announced investments of over $2 billion to reduce direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions by 33% until 2030, in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Vale said it intends to become carbon neutral by 2050.”
"As Vale continues to decarbonize its operations, the use of batteries will become an increasingly important part of the electrification of our fleet," Vale's energy director Ricardo Mendes said in the statement.
"This project allows us to test new technology in the field and accelerate Vale's energy transformation, which aims to achieve self-sufficiency by increasing electric power generation mainly through solar and wind sources in addition to our hydroelectric power generation,"-London

https://preview.redd.it/lg8lcg138wn51.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f1d75e91029855f98c43f6f617a25e747dfc011
Guess who has a large nickel mine in Indonesia, $VALE
Pricing and Math
After calculating a very conservative estimate of how much nickel Tesla would be needing in the future, these were the results… (see figure below)
With a conservative estimate of a $43 billion dollar contract, $43 billion minus the operating margin (38%)= $16.5 billion. This gives the stock 28% upside. The price target for $VALE is $15.36 with a 5% variance giving a low at $14.80 and a high of $16.00 Not to mention the stock market acts very irrational in times of hype, the stock could very well overreact to $20+CFRA’s current 12 month price target for VALE is $15.00, whom most likely have not anticipated Tesla news. (If they get the news, this thing will FLY based on what we have seen this year)
Elon Musk stated that Tesla “will give you a giant contract for a long period of time

Conservative nickel projections

This is not taking into account that the price of nickel is lagging in comparison to its current and future demand. Current nickel price as of 9/16/20: $15,229.50 per ton

Nickel Price: $15,229.50 per ton
Once the demand for nickel goes up and the supply grows scarce, that's easy economics theory, nickel price goes up.
The Plot Thickens
Put on your tinfoil hats for this one…
Elon Musk has a history of hiding stuff in his tweets.


https://preview.redd.it/cg0cdgbk8wn51.png?width=2874&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d2ce4935ee743b66bebaf5234a07ea451a991e6
We remember this one. He had called out that Tesla stock was too high at a pre split price of $750
  • The timestamp 8:11 signaled calendar date 8/11
  • The date of posting May 1st turned into 5/1
  • “Tesla stock price is too high imo” signaled that a stock split was imminent
What happened, on 8/11 Tesla announced a 5/1 stock split

https://preview.redd.it/twv8ll8o8wn51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=82b5c5810199912052728f3f71a3b282e3015fdd
Elon Musk has had a rough history with the SEC whom he outspokenly does not respect. This tweet was deciphered to read “Suck Elon’s Cock”


https://preview.redd.it/j5jcgd7r8wn51.jpg?width=984&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b9c77833dc918b0468b7efda79562ebc3e5660d
The Tesla short shorts represented the current Tesla models,
  • Model S
  • Model 3
  • Model X
  • Model Y
Elon expressing his lack of respect for the SEC and nobody is perfect

https://reddit.com/link/iuk3h0/video/moea3oqt8wn51/player
Reporter: “But how do they know if it is going to move the market if they are not reading all of them?”
Elon Musk: “I guess we might make some mistakes, who knows?”
Reporter: “Are you serious?”
Elon Musk: “Nobody's perfect”
Now let’s break down the battery day tweet

https://preview.redd.it/rujh3x609wn51.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=74f49f2c3cf5b58a2c7b062d385f1c84ce2962ae
  • The tweet was tweeted on the same day as $VALE’s dividend announcement (9/11)
  • Battery day is on the same day $VALE’s ex date for the regular and extra dividend (9/22)
  • “Many exciting things will be unveiled on Battery Day”
UNVEILED = unVEILed = VEIL = $VALE

VALE GANG

I rest my case
Positions
VALE 9/25 $12.00c
VALE 9/25 $13.00c
VALE 1/15/2021 $12.00c

$VALE GANG

EDIT: formatting, GIGA Metals is down 11%
EDIT 2: I'm not fucking selling. Either we moon to Valehalla or the captain goes down with his ship.
disclaimer: none of this is financial advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. nothing in this post should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment.
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Your Pre Market Brief for 08/28/2020

Your Pre Market Brief for Friday August 28th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Published 3:10 AM EST / Updated as of 4:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Thursday 08/28/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Friday August 28th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
Overnight News Heading into Friday August 28th 2020
(News Yet to be Traded 8:00 PM - 4:00 AM EST)
End of Day and After Hours News Heading into Friday August 28th 2020
(News Traded 4:00 PM - 8:00 PM EST)
Offering News
Note: Seeking A url's and Reddit do not get along.
Upcoming Earnings:
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the above before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

About 3,500 U.S. companies sue Trump over Chinese tariffs

Some 3,500 U.S. Companies Sue Over Trump-Imposed Chinese Tariffs

SPY, SPX, HD, WBA, TGT, F, TSLA
About 3,500 U.S. companies, including Tesla Inc, Ford Motor Co, Target Corp, Walgreen Co and Home Depot have sued the Trump administration in the last two weeks over the imposition of tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese-made goods.
The suits, filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade, named U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the Customs and Border Protection agency and challenge what they call the unlawful escalation of the U.S. trade war with China through the imposition of a third and fourth round of tariffs.
The legal challenges from a wide variety of companies argue the Trump administration failed to impose tariffs within a required 12-month period and did not comply with administrative procedures.
The companies challenge the administration's "unbounded and unlimited trade war impacting billions of dollars in goods imported from the People's Republic of China by importers in the United States," according to a suit filed by auto parts manufacturer Dana Corp.
The suits challenge tariffs in two separate groups known as List 3 and List 4A." List 3 includes 25% tariffs on about $200 billion in imports, while List 4A included 7.5% tariffs on $120 billion in goods.
One suit argues the administration cannot expand tariffs to other Chinese imports "for reasons untethered to the unfair intellectual property policies and practices it originally investigated."
Companies filing suit include heavy truck manufacturer Volvo Group North America, U.S. auto parts retailer Pep Boys, clothing company Ralph Lauren, Sysco Corp, guitar manufacturer Gibson Brands, Lenovo's U.S. unit, Dole Packaged Foods, a unit of Itochu Corp and golf equipment manufacturer Callaway Golf Co.
Home Depot's suit noted it faces tariffs on bamboo flooring, cordless drills and many other Chinese-made products. Walgreen, a unit of the Walgreen Boots Alliance, said it is paying higher tariffs on products like "seasonal novelties; party, first aid, and office supplies; and household essentials."
Lighthizer's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
On Sept. 15, the World Trade Organization found the United States breached global trading rules by imposing multibillion-dollar tariffs in Trump’s trade war with China.
The Trump administration says tariffs on Chinese goods were justified because China was stealing intellectual property and forcing U.S. companies to transfer technology for access to China’s markets.
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-09-25/some-3-500-us-companies-sue-over-trump-imposed-chinese-tariffs
submitted by BuzzLima to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 18th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.20.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $COST
  • $AZO
  • $NKE
  • $ACB
  • $RAD
  • $GIS
  • $KMX
  • $SFIX
  • $AYTU
  • $JKS
  • $FDS
  • $DRI
  • $ACN
  • $TNP
  • $KBH
  • $BB
  • $CTAS
  • $NEOG
  • $WOR
  • $JBL
  • $QTT
  • $CNTG
  • $TCOM
  • $NTWK
  • $MTN
  • $FUL
  • $CAMP
  • $SANW
  • $AIR
  • $AIH
  • $SCHL
  • $ERYP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 18th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.20.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $COST
  • $AZO
  • $NKE
  • $ACB
  • $RAD
  • $GIS
  • $KMX
  • $SFIX
  • $AYTU
  • $JKS
  • $FDS
  • $DRI
  • $ACN
  • $TNP
  • $KBH
  • $BB
  • $CTAS
  • $NEOG
  • $WOR
  • $JBL
  • $QTT
  • $CNTG
  • $TCOM
  • $NTWK
  • $MTN
  • $FUL
  • $CAMP
  • $SANW
  • $AIR
  • $AIH
  • $SCHL
  • $ERYP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

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A visit to Global Auto in Osaka,Japan!

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